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Environmental Change, Economic Growth, Migration, and Conflict

Vally Koubi
Thomas Bernauer
Gabriele Spilker
Tobias Böhmelt
Lena Schaffer

Environmental changes may bring about a variety of negative social, economic, and ultimately also political consequences. We are particularly interested in three such consequences: economic growth, migration, and political violence. Thus we examine whether and how environmental changes may influence economic performance and also human migration, and whether and how environmentally induced economic downturns and migration affect the risk of political violence. Empirically, this research uses global data and also survey data from several countries around the world such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Uganda, Nicaragua and Peru.

Selected Papers
Koubi, V., S. Stoll, and G. Spilker. 2016. Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions. Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1767-1.

Koubi, V., T. Böhmelt, G. Spilker, and L. Schaffer.  2016. The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: Evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries. Population and Environment DOI 10.1007/s11111-016-0258-7, 2016.

Koubi, V., G. Spilker, L. Schaffer, and T. Bernauer. 2016. Environmental stressors and migration: Evidence from Vietnam. World Development 79: 197-210.

Koubi, V., G. Spilker, T. Böhmelt, and T. Bernauer. 2014. Do natural resources matter for inter– and intrastate armed conflict? Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 227–243.

Buhaug, H, J. Nordkvelle, T. Bernauer, T. Böhmelt, M. Brzoska, J.W. Busby, A. Ciccone, H. Fjelde, E. Gartzke, N.P. Gleditsch, J.A. Goldstone, H. Hegre, H. Holtermann, V. Koubi, J.S.A. Link, P.M. Link, P. Lujala, J. O’Loughlin, C. Raleigh, J. Scheffran, J.P. Schilling, T.G. Smith, O.M. Theisen, R.S.J. Tol, H. Urdal, and N. von Uexkull. One effect to rule them all? A comment on quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Climatic Change 127(3-4): 391-398

Koubi, V., T. Bernauer, A. Kalbhenn, and G. Spilker. 2012. Climate variability, economic growth, and conflict. Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 113-127.

Bernauer, T., T. Böhmelt, and V. Koubi. 2012. Environmental changes and violent conflict. Environmental Research Letters 7(1): 015601 (1–8).

Bernauer, T. and T. Siegfried. 2012. Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia. Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 227–239.


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